The decision on which party will form the government in Punjab, Pakistan’s largest and most important electoral province, will be taken in a few days after the by-elections in 20 constituencies. Are needed so that they can retain the post of Chief Minister in the recount. On the other hand, if the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) wins a majority of these 20 seats, it may once again be in a position to form a government in Punjab by the time of the general election next year. This will be the first time since the recent fall of the PTI-led government that former Prime Minister Imran Khan has been asked to ‘go to the people’, hold elections and prove his statement of popularity among the people. There will be an opportunity. In 20 sub-constituencies of Punjab, the contest will be clearly between two parties namely PML-N and PTI. The PPP has already made a seat adjustment with the PML-N and the PML-Q is backing the PTI. Competition is expected to be fierce in most constituencies on the 17th of this month. One of the reasons for this is that the PML-N in most constituencies has given tickets to the same former members of the PTI whose defects caused these seats to become vacant.

In other words, these candidates are contesting the elections as PML-N candidates against their own former party. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan has criticized “loyalty-changing” politicians during his election campaign. One of his main slogans in the election campaign is that “the people will teach such conscientious objectors a lesson.” Since the end of his government, former Prime Minister Imran Khan has repeatedly stated that he made a mistake but now he will give tickets only to long-serving party workers. The majority of the candidates to whom he has given tickets are ‘electables’. That is, politicians who have personal or family influence or a vote bank.

Most of them are politicians who have either recently joined PTI from another party or have changed one or more parties before joining PTI. So the question is Why PTI could not implement the issue of giving tickets to long time workers? Doesn’t she want to take a risk in the by-elections or is it really not possible for her to give tickets to the workers instead of the electables in any election? What kind of competition am I facing and will the outcome of these elections also affect the PTI’s strategy in future general elections?

PP 272 Muzaffargarh

The provincial assembly seat fell vacant following the defection of Syeda Zahra Batool, a former member of the Punjab Assembly from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. His son Syed Basit Sultan Bukhari from the same constituency is an ‘angry’ member of the PTI National Assembly. In the by-elections, Basit Sultan’s wife Zahra Basit Batool is the PML-N candidate. But on the other hand, Basit Sultan’s brother Haroon Bukhari will also be in the fray as an independent candidate. The two figures from the same family are expected to face off

In such a situation, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has fielded Moazzam Khan Jatoi to fight him. He belongs to the politically influential Jatoi tribe. His cousin Abdul Qayyum Khan Jatoi also served as provincial minister from 2008 to 2010.

Traditionally in this constituency, voting is done on the basis of personalities and community system as opposed to political parties. Moazzam Khan Jatoi had also contested the 2018 elections as a PTI candidate but lost to independent candidate Basit Sultan. Earlier, he had once been elected a member of the National Assembly on a PPP ticket. Are

‘PTI’s top priority right now is electables’

Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, an analyst and head of the Pakistan Institute for Legislative Development and Transparency (PLDIT), believes that at least in the by-elections, it was not possible for the PTI to give a ticket to a longtime party worker. There is competition and there is very little margin for victory. Electives are the first priority of PTI at the moment. According to Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, the logic of PTI giving tickets to electables in by-elections is understandable And at least in these elections, they can’t be blamed for not giving tickets to long-time workers. That you will lose that seat. He believes that if the PTI had decided that it had to win this seat, there was no choice but to go to the electables.

Pp. 224 Lodhran

Lodhran is the area of ​​former senior PTI leader Jahangir Khan Tareen. Jahangir Khan Tareen was considered one of the closest associates of the former Prime Minister but he has parted ways with Imran Khan. Zawar Hussain Warraich of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) from Lodhran constituency PP-224 had won the last general election. However, he was part of the Tareen group and was among the most recent defectors. He is now a PML-N candidate. In comparison, PTI has given ticket to Amir Iqbal Shah Qureshi. He has previously been elected to the Provincial Assembly on PML-N and PML-Q tickets. Ali Khan Tareen, the PTI candidate of the time and son of Jahangir Tareen, was defeated.

‘Teaching a lesson to looters has emerged as an important election slogan for PTI’

In this constituency, the PTI has once again fielded electables who have changed more than one political party before. At the same time, in the election campaign, Chairman Imran Khan is chanting the slogan to teach a lesson to the ‘looters’. There is a do-or-die situation. It was not right to expect that they would not give tickets to the electables. Will However, he said that it was also a fact that most of the electives were present in his own party.

Pp. 228 Lodhran

In the second seat of Lodhran, PML-N has also given ticket to Nazir Ahmad Khan who was a deviant member of PTI and had won this seat in the last general election. However, in this constituency of Lodhran, independent candidate Pir Syed Rafi Uddin Shah Bukhari is also being considered as a strong candidate. The impression about him is that even if he wins the seat, he will join PML-N. Thus, PTI is facing a double contest in this constituency. The PTI has fielded Izzat Javed Khan as its candidate for the constituency. Were defeated.

‘Either you are not in danger, or you have no electives’

Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, head of PLDAT, believes that in both cases, it is possible for political parties to give tickets to their workers who have been loyal to the party for a long time. If you don’t or you don’t have electives, you may give tickets to long-serving workers. ‘ Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto had given tickets to many candidates who he himself did not believe would win. This was a time when Bhutto’s health was not taken very seriously in politics and the candidates No one took them seriously when they gave them tickets. But they won. ”Ahmed Bilal Mehboob thinks that once the PTI has decided that it has to give tickets to the electorate, it will be difficult for it to get out of this cycle.

PP 288 Dera Ghazi Khan

This constituency of South Punjab consists mainly of rural areas and some tribal areas. The Khosa family has a lot of political influence in this constituency. In the last general election, Mohsin Ata Khosa won from this constituency as an independent. He then joined PTI. Earlier, he had also been elected as a member of the Provincial Assembly on a PML-N ticket. However, he is not contesting the by-elections himself and is being replaced by his cousin Abdul Qadir Khan Khosa on a PML-N ticket. He is also a cousin of Mohsin Ata Khosa. Sardar Saifuddin Khosa had contested the 2018 general elections for the Provincial Assembly on a PTI ticket. He is the son of former senator Sardar Zulfiqar Khan Khosa, a long-time PML-N leader. Are Prior to 2018, he himself has been associated with the PML-N for a long time and has been elected to the Assembly several times.

Is it possible for political parties to give tickets to workers?

Journalist and analyst Salman Ghani says that the problem with not only the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) but also with other political parties in Pakistan has been that they have given too few tickets to party workers. We have seen politicians who have emerged as party workers, but the number of such people is very small. Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, head of PLDAT, believes that political parties can keep their long-serving workers happy by giving them other posts, but they do not do so, such as membership in the Senate or presidency of the country. He said that PTI had taken at least one such step by giving the post of President to Arif Alvi after the last general election. However, other parties have not been able to do so.

PP 217 Multan

PTI has given ticket to Zain Qureshi for this Multan Provincial Assembly seat. He is the son of PTI Vice President and former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. He was elected a member of the National Assembly on a PTI ticket in 2018. It may be recalled that Shah Mehmood Qureshi had been a part of the Pakistan People’s Party for a long time before joining the PTI before the 2013 elections. Shah Mehmood Qureshi had won the National Assembly seat in the 2018 general elections, but he also contested the Punjab Assembly elections from PP-217. Here he was defeated by Muhammad Saleem Naeem. Saleem Naeem was considered a ‘long time worker’ of PTI in this constituency of Multan but his party gave ticket to Shah Mehmood Qureshi against him. But Saleem Naeem won the election by running as an independent. Then the then leading leader of PTI Jahangir Khan Tareen brought Saleem Naeem back to PTI during the formation of the government. However, he was recently included in the list of deviant members who voted for the PML-N candidate in the Chief Ministerial election.